Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Speaking Bernankian

It is becoming utterly frustrating to listen to communication from the Federal Reserve.  This one is from Yahoo finance:
A panel headed by Vice Chairman Janet Yellen is exploring ways to provide more information on future central bank moves. More clarity on interest rate policy could help reassure investors and businesses that rates will stay low.

Interest rate policy?  Has they simply given up hope in communicating outside of the interest rate channel?  

The Federal Reserve has two massive communication problems right now, the first is there choice instrument in expressing changes in monetary policy is deeply flawed and the second is when they do enact a policy change, there is no direct, explicit target that they wish to accomplish.  

There is hope however, take this quote from the latest Fed minutes:

It was noted that any such accommodation would likely be more effective if it were provided in the context of a future communications initiative, and most of these members agreed that they could support retention of the current policy stance at this meeting. […]

With the Committee in the process of reviewing its monetary policy strategies and communication, and no additional accommodation being provided at this meeting, a few members indicated that they could support the Committee’s decision even though they had not favored recent policy actions.

NGDP was discussed thankfully, but I am not convinced that the FOMC understands anything outside of interest rates, take this quote:

More broadly, a majority of participants agreed that it could be beneficial to formulate and publish a statement that  would elucidate the Committee’s policy approach, and  participants generally expressed interest in providing  additional information to the public about the likely  future path of the target federal funds rate. 

So there we have, once the three fed dissenters leave in January I expect another round of $600 Billion in QE in order to 'push down long term interest rates.'  Instead, Bernanke should switch away from Bernakian and simply say the fed will enact QE until NGDP is growing at 6 percent.

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